Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has likely bottomed near $58,000-$60,000 and could grind higher into a “hated rally” as the U.S. moves toward de facto yield curve control, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s “Trade Secrets” on Friday, Hayes said the market is starting to understand that U.S. debt is too large and too expensive to finance without more liquidity support.
According to Hayes, the key driver is not politics but liquidity.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-end Treasury buybacks are a signal that the U.S. is moving toward yield curve control, even if officials do not call it that.
“They call it Treasury buyback […] but at the end of the day, it’s money printing,” Hayes pointed out.
Hayes made the case that the U.S. government must be able to issue debt affordably and if long-term yields threaten that system, policymakers will “print as much money” and change as many rules as needed.
Bitcoin, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and other crypto assets should respond well to that.
Hayes’ Bitcoin Price Target
Hayes said Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end and potentially $1 million by 2030 but warned investors not to treat price targets as precision forecasts: “I predict the narrative. Then you pick the fastest horse.”
For now, he said the narrative has shifted bullish because the market is seeing the first signs of U.S. yield curve control.
He does not expect Bitcoin to immediately jump to $120,000. Instead, he sees a slow grind higher as more evidence builds that Treasuries are no longer “money good” in size.
Trump Is Not The Catalyst
Hayes dismissed the idea that President Donald Trump’s comments on Bitcoin or crypto policy are driving the rally, saying Trump is irrelevant: “Read the Treasury. Read the Fed. Read the monetary authorities.”
Hayes also downplayed the CLARITY Act, as crypto regulation is not likely to be a top political priority compared with issues like housing affordability, electricity prices and data center costs.
Why Hayes Has His Eyes on ETH
Hayes’ top current risk-reward trade is Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), not Hyperliquid.
His reasoning is simple: everyone hates ETH.
“It’s the one mega-cap crypto that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high,” Hayes stated.
Ethereum remains the base layer for DeFi and still has the strongest developer ecosystem, but investors needed to see price action first before remembering the bull case.
In a bullish scenario, Ethereum could rise 3x to 5x quickly if capital rotates back into the asset.
Hayes also named Ethena (CRYPTO: ENA) as another strong risk-reward trade since it benefits when the synthetic dollar trade becomes expensive, which usually happens when Bitcoin starts rising and funding markets heat up.
On meme coins, Hayes said another broad meme coin season is unlikely. The next winners will need real communities or major personalities behind them.
“Random person on social media is not going to be able to create a $100 million meme coin” as easily as before, he pointed out.
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