Russia’s regulated crypto trading market could process between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles during its first year, according to an Aug. 29 forecast from SberCIB Investment Research.
Summary
- SberCIB estimates regulated Russian crypto trading could reach four trillion rubles during its first year.
- The forecast represents roughly 20% of Russia’s estimated annual cryptocurrency transaction volume today, Popov said.
- Non-qualified investors face annual purchase limits of 300,000 rubles through each intermediary after testing requirements.
- Existing crypto exchange providers have until July 2027 to register under Russia’s new licensing framework.
- Bitcoin, Ether and USDT currently meet proposed criteria for organized trading by ordinary Russian investors.
The upper estimate equals approximately $46.43 billion at the exchange rate used by TASS. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the annual figure could rise to about 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.06 billion, by 2029.
The projection is not a guaranteed minimum. Contrary to some secondary reports, TASS said first-year volume was “not expected to exceed” 4 trillion rubles. The 3.5 trillion-to-4 trillion-ruble range should therefore be treated as SberCIB’s forecast rather than a confirmed trading target.
Russia’s crypto trading forecast assumes limited migration
Popov said Russian cryptocurrency transactions currently total roughly 50 billion rubles daily. That would equal about 18 trillion rubles over one year, based on Russian Finance Ministry data he cited.
SberCIB expects approximately 20% of this activity to move onto regulated exchanges during the first year. The bank forecasts organized trading of between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, followed by about 7.5 trillion rubles in 2029.
The estimates remain subject to investor demand, exchange registrations and final implementing rules. Sberbank has not presented the figures as official forecasts from Russia’s Finance Ministry or central bank.
Popov expects substantial activity to remain with cryptocurrency exchange services operating outside organized markets. This is one reason the estimate captures only a minority of Russia’s broader crypto transaction volume.
Retail investors face testing and annual purchase limits
Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency framework takes effect on Sept. 1, 2026. The Bank of Russia said both qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to conduct crypto transactions through approved intermediaries.
Non-qualified investors must pass a knowledge test before buying eligible cryptocurrencies. They can purchase no more than 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, annually through each intermediary.
Qualified investors must also complete testing. However, the central bank said they could access any cryptocurrency without the same monetary ceiling. The exact products available will depend on intermediary services and supporting regulations.
As crypto.news reported, the framework covers brokers, asset managers, exchanges and digital depositories. Cryptocurrency remains prohibited as payment for ordinary goods and services inside Russia.
Bitcoin, Ether and USDT lead the proposed asset list
The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT for organized trading. The regulator selected them using criteria related to market capitalization, trading volume and overseas price history.
The consultation did not mean that every intermediary would immediately offer all three assets. As previously reported, the central bank’s proposed BTC, ETH and USDT list remained subject to final regulatory action after the consultation period closed on Aug. 24.
Other cryptocurrencies could remain unavailable to ordinary investors through regulated venues unless they satisfy the central bank’s standards. Qualified investors are expected to receive broader access after completing required testing.
The restricted retail list could encourage some demand to remain outside the licensed system. That possibility is incorporated into SberCIB’s conservative adoption assumptions.
Licensing deadlines will shape the market’s first year
Existing crypto exchange providers can continue operating during a transition period but must complete registration by July 1, 2027. The delay means the regulated market will not operate at full capacity immediately after the law takes effect.
The central bank has also proposed rules covering exchanges, digital depositories, client accounts and asset records. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that the Bank of Russia will maintain official registers for approved market participants.
Sberbank separately plans to launch crypto trading, custody and digital-depository infrastructure by Dec. 1, 2026. The bank has not finalized customer eligibility, supported assets, fees or withdrawal terms, according to earlier reporting.
The first measurable results will depend on how many intermediaries enter the regulated system and how much activity moves away from unregistered services. No verified market movement in Bitcoin, Ether or USDT was directly attributed to SberCIB’s forecast.
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